Omaha Poker Flops

In both varieties of Omaha poker, some key questions to answer are these: How close am I to the nut hand and how far do I need to go to get there? If I have the nut hand on the flop, do I have a redraw that can make me even better? How many players am I against?

What do I know about how they play? Finally, a key question:

What are the chances I’m playing for half or less of the pot?

Omaha High Flops

Of all the things you need to consider in Omaha poker games, how close you are to the nut hand and how you could only be in contention for less than the entire pot have everything to do with whether or not you should still be in the hand and how much money you should be investing. If you’re way out in front, it is your duty as a profit-maximizing poker player to get your money in. In Texas Holdem poker, it’s possible you’ll lose all your action if you push too hard on the flop, but in Omaha poker the possibilities are almost endless. This does mean you’ll sometimes end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but knowing where you are relative to other likely hands is paramount in Omaha poker.

Let’s look at some basic situations in which it appears your hand is strong but is in fact weak. Suppose you hold Q♥K♥T♠J♣, and you get the flop shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 In Omaha poker, the nuts don’t often stay nutty.

You have flopped the nut straight! As Andy Garcia’s character said to Brad Pitt’s character on the phone in Ocean’s Eleven , “Congratulations, you’re a dead man.” The problem you are facing is that you have no redraw to speak of. The only way you could improve your hand is by making a full house, which would mean another King and one of your other cards would have to come runner-runner or two Queens , Tens, or Jacks would need to come runner-runner. Two Kings runner-runner would give you quads, but that’s not terribly likely. The odds of exactly two cards coming on the turn are about 1,000 to 1. But wait! You may say, “I thought I flopped the nuts. Doesn’t that mean I have the best poker hand?” Yes, it does, but the problem is, the nuts can usually change when the next card comes. If the J♦ comes, for example, the nut hand has changed from an Ace-high straight to a Royal Flush, completed by Q♦T♦. Let’s see how your straight on the flop holds up against three other likely hands, as seen in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Nut straight but no good!

As amazing as it may seem, the nut straight hand with no redraw is close to dead against these hands. See Table 1 for how the simulation results break down.

Hand	Percentage of Money Won (Flop = A♦K♦T♥)
Q♥K♥T♠J♣	27.8%
A♣T♣T♦8♥	18.7%
K♣Q♠J♦9♦	53.5%
J♠9♣9♥8♣	0.0%

Table 1 Omaha High Hand Results

The important thing to consider here is that the dominant hand is behind after the flop, in that the player has two pair and a flush draw to go against the made straight. But how in the world will this translate into 53.5 percent of the money? Let’s walk through it. First and foremost is the fact that the big hand has the straight along with you and a flush redraw. This hand is the only one with two diamonds in it, which means it can only make a flush. It wins even if four diamonds end up on the board; remember that in Omaha, exactly two cards from your hand must be used. No singleton flashes, full houses, or straights work in this game. One card is good to make quads when three of a kind end up on the board, though, as any other card from your hand will be used as the fifth one. But anyway, the straight is made, and the flush redraw is also there. What’s interesting is that the set of Tens held by the second player isn’t all that strong, winning a little less than one-fifth of all money. Most of this player’s money will be won when the board pairs, giving them a full house without giving someone a higher full house. It’s difficult for an underset full house (in this case the set is of lower rank than the pair) to win in Omaha poker, but obviously it does happen regularly. Be wary if the board has high cards with one of them paired up, as someone who likes to play wrap hands (poker hands with lots of straight and flush possibilities) might just have caught a better full house. A good friend calls Omaha high the place where you “peddle the nuts.” She makes sense when she says these things.

You can likely see how the lowly J998 is hopeless. First, it has no flush draw. Second, it has no chance to counterfeit the Ace-high straight because the highest straight it can complete is King high. Remember, two cards must be used. A straight starting at Nine only makes it up to the King. In addition, any full house will lose because the Nines will lose to the set of Tens, or any other set will necessarily win out over this hand. Finally, it is impossible for the poor slob to catch four of a kind, as another player has a Nine in their hand. Check and fold—oh well.

The second hand we’ll look at is a key example of how a positively raggedy hand turns into a monster in the blink of an eye. As an example, look at the following four poker hands before the flop:

Hand	Percentage of Money Won
A♦A♣8♦T♠	36.6%
J♣9♣T♥4♠	19.7%
6♥6♦K♣J♥	22.3%
K♠Q♠7♦7♣	21.4%

Table 2 Omaha High Hand Percentages before The Flop

As you can see, the pair of Aces has a diamond flush draw and two ways to make a nut straight (Ace-high with a board of King-Queen-Jack and Jack-high with a board of Jack-Nine-Seven) as well as full house possibilities with the best set possible (Aces). Note that the rest of the hands will also do well less often but still with regularity. The second hand has one almost useless card in the 4♠, but it does enjoy the only club flush draw and a three-card wrap straight opportunity. The third poker hand has a high-straight opportunity with the K♣J♥combination and a pair of Sixes as well as a bad but sole heart flush draw. Finally, the fourth hand has a high spade draw with the King and Queen, the nut straight possibility, and a pair of Sevens. It all depends on the flop, then! Say it is the flop you see in Figure 3.

Figure 3 Once again, the flop determines your hand’s value.

Everything changes with this flop. The new percentages are in Table 3.

Hand	Percentage of Money Won (Flop = 6♠8♣K♦)
A♦A♣8♦T♠	16.0%
J♣9♣T♥4♠	15.2%
6♥6♦K♣J♥	62.2%
K♠Q♠7♦7♣	6.5%

Table 3 Omaha High Hand Percentages after the Flop

As you see, the hand with the pocket Sixes is now dominant. Even without a flush draw, as no hearts are on board, the set of Sixes after the flop approaches the two-thirds mark in total money won. Not only is it the only poker hand that will make a full house if the board pairs on the turn, but it will also make Kings full of Sixes if the case (only remaining) King comes before the end of the hand. The hand with the pair of Aces is drawing to another Ace to give it top set . Luckily for it, a third Ace on the turn will not give anyone a straight.

It will also not complete a flush as the flop came rainbow (three different suits). It also has a backdoor flush draw , as runner-runner diamonds on the turn and river will win the pot. In fact, in this example, it is impossible for the board to pair if two diamonds do in fact show up. Can you see how that is? Notice the flop has one diamond, the King. Now see that the other two ranks, Six and Eight, already have the diamond accounted for in the third and first hands, respectively.

In pure matter of fact, this is a false dilemma, because in a board game like Omaha poker it is impossible to know specific cards are dead (out of play or in play in another poker hand) unless you yourself hold them (in brick-and-mortar games, cards may be exposed accidentally or people may not protect their hand well enough). But the ability to answer the question we posed to you demonstrates a skill that a poker player needs to succeed: Know what can beat you. In brick-and-mortar Stud, the ability to follow dead cards is critical.

Let’s talk about the fourth hand, and incorporate the second into the discussion. The fourth hand has very limited possibilities and only wins 6.5 percent of the money over time. The only way it wins is if the turn and river cards both help it. The best way for it to win is for the two remaining Sevens to come perfect-perfect. A slightly more plausible way for it to win is for a King and a Queen to come, giving the player the best full house possible in that situation. A King and a third Seven would also give it a winning full house.

But what if a Seven comes on the turn? Wouldn’t that mean this hand is now crushing the set of Sixes? Yes, but that’s not relevant because the second hand has just completed a Jack-high straight. So many possibilities? Yep. Welcome to Omaha poker. The player holding the straight would then hope something like the 3♥ comes on the river, as it would not pair the board, complete a flush, nor enable a higher straight. The second poker hand has several ways to make a straight, but it’s a big underdog because there are a lot of ways for a higher straight, a flush, and a full house to make by the end of the hand.

Omaha Hi/Lo Flops

If you thought the Omaha high-only discussion fills your brain to capacity, you’re right, it does. When you add the ability of a low hand or hands to take half the pot, the complexity of the situation simply explodes. That being said, Omaha Hi/Lo is Doug’s favorite game. It’s a fickle lover, though. When luck is on your side, this game is the sweetest, but when it’s not, it’s the most bitter. Not for the faint of heart…

With that pleasant thought in your head, let’s see what we can do with some good cards.

We’ll start with the mother of all Omaha Hi/Lo hands, Ace-Ace-Deuce-Three Double- Suited . This is strong in several ways. First, the holder has two nut flush draws. Second, they have a pair of Aces; and while it is common for a third and (less often) all four Aces to be accounted for, it does in fact mean that if an Ace does appear, it makes a possibility for the best full house (Aces full of Deuces or Threes). Playing four-handed against three random hands AA23 double-suited will win 43.3 percent of the money. So it’s a little more than twice as likely to win money. But how could the best starting hand only be a 2:1 favorite over three random hands, you may ask?

First, a low hand will only be possible around 50 percent of the time. Remember, in order for a low poker hand to qualify, there must be at least three different cards ranked Eight or lower on the board, and a player must be able to use two cards ranked Eight or lower from their hand to complete a five-card low.

A qualifying low hand only shows up about half the time in Omaha Hi/Lo.
Second, flushes don’t come regularly. True, you’ll have twice the chance with a doublesuited poker hand, but it’s still not something you can count on. In addition, there is no way for this hand to make the nut straight unless it is the wheel (a Five-high straight). This is often good for a scoop (winning the entire pot), but it’s vulnerable to redraws. For example, if someone’s in the big blind and no one raises, they get to play 6♥7♣8♠9♦ for time served, or, what they’ve already put in the pot. Assume you see the flop shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4 Even this flop can produce unexpected winners.

An Ace-Deuce now gives you both the best low poker hand and what is known as the ignorant straight , or a straight made with two cards from your poker hand connecting on the low end of the cards on the board. You may also have a backdoor flush draw if you have clubs, spades, or diamonds. If you have no flush possibilities, though, the only way you can win the high part of the pot is if you catch a combination of Aces, Deuces, and Threes to make a full house. It’s very possible that you may need to split the low portion of the pot with at least one other player. You will learn to hate the thought of getting quartered , which happens when you split the high or the low part of the pot with another player (a half of a half is a quarter). Twenty-five percent of the pot is certainly better than nothing, but it stinks relative to what you’re hoping for.

With the flop we just described, you know you’ll at least be getting some of the money back at the end of the hand that you initially put in the pot. A much more dicey situation comes if you have A♣2♣A♦3♦, and you get the flop in Figure 5.

Figure 5 It’s sad when a good poker hand goes bad.

Quite frankly, this flop is an unmitigated disaster. Your low draw is counterfeited , in that the Two and Three in your hand are now repeated on the board. The new nut low draw is Ace-Four, as it would make the Four-Three-Two-Ace countdown. The only way you can make a low is if two more low cards come, and then they would need to be a Four and a Five to make the nut low.

If you get this flop with that hand, you’ll be talking to yourself. In looking at the high part of the hand, you’re in even more trouble, as you have bottom two pair . Anyone with a Ten and other cards will almost certainly make a better two pair, and chances are a straight draw will make. A pair of Tens is especially deadly with this flop. Our simulation established that the AA23 hand will only win 8.4 percent of the money against a player with a pocket pair of Tens and two random cards and two players with completely random poker hands. The set of Tens wins 49.4 percent of the money, which accounts for when its set of Tens holds up as well as when some sort of straight or random low holds up. The AA23 hand is basically hoping an Ace and another Two or Three comes or that it makes a low no one else can beat. As we mentioned in the Omaha high–only discussion, it’s all about how you fit the flop. This situation is a great time to fold and curse your luck.

A much more common occurrence is for a flop to hit you pretty well but not perfectly. For instance, assume you have A♥2♥K♠5♠ and you see the flop in Figure 6.

Figure 6 This flop probably helped your opponents more than it helped you.

The possibilities are so numerous as to border on the absurd. The only thing you do know is that you will not be making a straight flush, four of a kind, or a full house. Remember, without a pair or three to a straight flush on the flop, it is impossible to make these hands. What you do have is bottom pair, an easily beaten low, and two possibilities to make a runner-runner flush (hearts and spades). Unless there is a lot of money in the pot, this may be a good hand to minimize your losses. First, any of several commonly played low combinations beat you. Any Ace-Three, Ace-Four, and Three-Four beats you as of this moment. If there are four players in the pot, it’s safe to assume at least one of them has a better low draw than you have. Because at least one of the cards you’re looking for is dead, you are not shooting for four or eight cards, but rather seven, six, or even fewer. The news doesn’t get any better on the high side of the hand. Many players will have played a pocket pair of Queens and will now have a set. A set of Eights is also a threat. It is also very possible for someone to have played a wrap-style poker hand containing one each of a Nine, Ten, and Jack. What this wrap straight draw does is allow for any of those three cards to give the holder a straight, with the Nine making the nut straight at that moment. You have a runner-runner draw to the nut straight, as a Ten and a Jack give you the best straight assuming no flush is made, but this is a long way to walk for the high half, no matter what possibility you consider.

On the other hand, if the flop is only slightly different, such as 3♠8♥Q♦, your hand is now going to be good for the low much more frequently. While not all that great as a high poker hand, there are still possibilities. At this point, it becomes necessary to ascertain how many players still in the hand are going for the low along with you. The easy rule of thumb when going for the low is that if there is an even number of players in the hand and half or fewer are in competition for the low, as best you can tell, it is worth staying in. This is especially true if you have any realistic shot at the high as well. To be perfectly honest, this hand does not have much expectation to win the high side of the pot, as you need help on both the turn and the river. The low side is robust because it has the Five as backup in case a Deuce comes on the turn or river, counterfeiting your nut low. The best thing you have going for you is that any Ace-Three is counterfeited, and now only an Ace-Four beats you. While very possible, the good news is that if it’s the 2♠, you now have the second-nut flush draw. We did say earlier that this game is all about showing down nut hands, but two second-nut hands isn’t as bad as it could be. Try as hard as you can to will the A♠, or especially the 4♠, to come on the river just in case, though.