Choosing Starting Hands in Seven-Card Stud

So which hands should you play in seven-card Stud? As opposed to breaking the analysis down by position as we did in Texas Holdem, we’ll break it down by type of hand and discuss how position affects your choices during each discussion.

Playing Three-of-a-Kind on Third Street

If you’re dealt trips, you’re rolled up and have a tremendous starting hand. In fact, according to a 100,000-hand simulation in Turbo Seven-Card Stud, trip Deuces wins 72 percent of the time, trip Eights wins 79 percent of the time, and trip Aces wins 84.5 percent of the time against seven random poker hands when everyone stays to the river. Trips are so strong that you don’t have to worry if the fourth card of your rank is someone else’s upcard. The winning percentage for trip Deuces, Eights, and Aces drops only by about 2 percent when the fourth card of that rank is in another player’s hand. The bad news is that you won’t be rolled up that often. But when you are, raise until they make you stop.

Playing Pairs on Third Street

Pairs from Tens to Aces are great hands, but they’re a bit more vulnerable than trips, particularly when one or both of the other cards of your rank are dead, or you have a lousy kicker. For example, the hand in Figure 1 is pretty good if no one has an upcard larger than your pair, but it would be pretty dicey if there were a Queen and a King to follow you.

Figure 1 You can play unless you can’t improve to trips, or there are bigger cards behind you.

You can play a pair of Aces in the hole regardless of your kicker and whether there are any Aces in other players’ hands. The reason Aces are so good is that if you make two pairs, and there’s a good chance you will, you will have Aces-up, very probably the best two-pair hand. Believe us, you will win a lot of hands with two pairs. In a 100,000-hand simulation in Turbo Seven-Card Stud, A♣A♠2♦2♥3♣4♥6♣ won right at 50 percent of the time when every other player stayed to the river.

With that information in mind, you can usually play any pair of Tens or higher as long as you have a good kicker and no one with a larger upcard has raised you. If a player with a bigger upcard has raised, you can still call if you have a good kicker (preferably one that duplicates the raiser’s upcard) or re-raise if you have a larger pair than you figure them to have.

Pairs lower than Tens are still decent hands, provided your pair is live (there are no cards of that rank on other players’ boards), your kicker is higher than any callers’ door cards, and no more than one of your kicker’s mates is gone. Be warned, though: When you play a small pair, you need to improve quickly or get out of the poker hand.

Playing Three to a Flush on Third Street

Flushes are powerful hands in seven-card Stud, but they’re a lot harder to make than you’d think. When your first three cards are the same suit, the odds are 5 to 1 against you making your flush by the river, assuming none of the cards you need are in other players’ hands . This guideline applies to any three cards of the same suit, but if the upcards behind you are high and unmatched (that is, there’s an Ace, King, and Queen behind you), you might consider folding or just calling the bring-in.

If no one has raised before you, you can play if there are two cards of your suit out, but not if three or more are gone. If a player raises into you, and you have an Ace-high flush started, you need to determine whether the player is trying to steal or is raising on a good poker hand. If you have big cards and think your opponent may be trying to steal the antes, you can call if one of your flush cards is gone, or if you have three to a straight flush. If two flush cards are gone, and your cards aren’t high enough to make a solid two-pair poker hand at the river, you should probably give the player credit for a better hand and fold.

Playing Three to a Straight on Third Street

It’s easy to call when you have an Ace, King, and Queen as your first three cards, but calling with the hand in Figure 2 might give you pause if some of your opponents’ upcards are Tens or higher.

Figure 2 Sure, you could improve to a straight, but will you?

When you have three cards with no gaps, and all of the cards you need are live, the odds are about 6 to 1 against you making a straight, so you can certainly call the bring-in or even a full bet if your lowest card is an Eight or higher. If there is a one-card gap in your potential straight, however, you need to think very seriously about folding if any of your straight cards are dead. In fact, you should fold to a full bet if any of the cards you need to fill the gap are in another player’s hand.

You should also be careful of three-card straights that contain Aces, mainly because your outs are cut in half. For example, if you hold the hand in Figure 3, you must catch a Jack and a Ten to complete your straight. This hand contains three big cards, which is great, but it has a relatively low straight potential.

Figure 3 Big cards are good, but you have an inflexible straight draw.